Short Rates Desk
Today's View · Mon 21 Apr 2026· pre-open · data fresh 6:58 am ET

Front-end bid sticks despite soft auction tail; Street still calls for cuts markets won't price.

Our take. GCF held 4.32% into the fix, the 7Y tailed +1.3bp on weak indirect takedown, and SOFR volumes landed in the 75th percentile. Dealer survey still centers a July cut; prediction markets have faded to 38%. The gap widens if Friday's core PCE prints sticky.

Consensus vs Our View — July 2026 FOMC

updated 06:58 ET

MARKETS

conf 82%
38%

July cut implied probability

Polymarket + Kalshi

DEALERS

conf 74%
-25bp

Median July path

NY Fed Survey

STREET

conf 68%
6/9

Shops calling July cut

Synthesized commentary

OUR MODEL

conf 71%
42%

Cut probability, pre-PCE

Short Rates Desk

Event Feed · last 12h

updated 06:58 ET
  • 06:42 ETDTCC

    GCF Repo Index holds 4.32% into fix; volume +8% vs 20d avg

    Front-end bid persists despite quarter-end passing. Dispersion narrowed sharply — 99th percentile tightening to 4.34%.

  • 06:15 ETFed Guy

    Joseph Wang: "Reserves still comfortably above LCLoR despite QT"

    Argues SOFR calm through tax date confirms ample-reserves regime. Flags April 15 TGA rebuild as the real test.

  • 05:58 ETTreasury

    7Y auction tails +1.3bp; indirect takedown 61.2% (prior 67.4%)

    Weak foreign sponsorship reversing last month's strong uptake. Dealer take-home highest since December 2025.

  • 05:30 ETConks

    Conks flags BTFP unwind pattern in H.4.1; calls reserve drain symmetric

    Expects bank reserves to cushion another 4 weeks before reverse-repo buffer starts mattering to SOFR.

Research Digest · Fed & NBER

refreshed daily
  • FEDS NotesApr 18

    Reserve demand elasticity post-March disruptions

    Staff finds LCLoR level ~$2.5T with wider error bars than 2024 estimate.

    Why it matters: strengthens ample-reserves case Joseph Wang articulated this morning.

  • NBERApr 17

    Term premia and QT: an event-study decomposition

    Authors isolate ~18bp of 10Y term premium attributable to QT runoff since 2022; convergence to neutral if pace halves.

    Why it matters: validates our use of ACM term premium as a standalone signal vs rate-expectations.

  • Hutchins CenterApr 14

    How banks responded to the Discount Window stigma reforms

    Utilization still below TAF-era norms despite stigma campaign. Primary-credit rate cut to SOFR+25 in Q1.

    Why it matters: if March selloff stress tests this, DW becomes the real LCLoR floor — not IORB.